It’s Time For the Olympics to Adopt Permanent Locations
The Olympics currently face three large problems. Firstly, hosting the modern Olympics is a bad idea for any city due to the exorbitant costs, which are consistently over ten billion dollars. Moreover, preliminary cost estimates—the ones shown to local taxpayers—tend to be wildly unreliable: one 2012 study found that cost overruns at the Summer Olympics have averaged over 250% since 1976. Accordingly, cities are starting to wake up to this economic reality. While eleven cities bid on the 2004 Olympics, only two cities each stayed in the races for the 2022 and 2024 Olympics, respectively.
That’s just the first problem. Secondly, the Olympics are starting to crack under the pressure of climate change. At the Winter Olympics, high temperatures and usage of artificial snow at outdoor events have ballooned in recent years, which can result in unsafe conditions. Vancouver 2010 had to import snow by helicopter, Sochi 2014 hit 68 degrees Fahrenheit, and Beijing 2022 has used 49 million gallons of water to generate artificial snow. This problem is only going to get worse in the future, with one recent study finding Sapporo, Japan to be the only past host city that could be a viable host in 2100.
Meanwhile, the Summer Olympics are also facing heat-related problems, though these are slightly less pressing than the winter problems. Last year’s Olympics in Tokyo were the hottest ever by average high temperature, which was 90° F. Athletes in endurance sports felt tortured by the combination of high heat and humidity; the latter is also increasing due to climate change. Consequently, the 95° temperature of the hottest day in Tokyo felt more like 105°. In the long term, only 33 Northern Hemisphere cities of viable hosting size will have a low risk of unsafe Summer Olympic temperatures by 2085, according to one study. Outside of Western Europe, the number of viable host cities shrinks to just 8 out of 543 potential hosts.
A third problem faced by the Olympics is the potential for geopolitical controversy, which can put a damper on the Games and lead to boycotts by important countries. Most notably, the US led a boycott of the Moscow games in 1980 over the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, and the Soviet Union led a counter-boycott of Los Angeles 1984. Given the rise of China and the potential for a second Cold War, there could be similar boycotts of Olympic Games held in global powers in the future. Already, Beijing 2022 has faced considerable controversy over Chinese human rights abuses, with Western countries opting for a diplomatic boycott (though still sending athletes, unlike during the 1980s boycotts).
All three of these problems can be solved by adopting permanent hosts for the Olympic Games instead of switching countries every time. Firstly and most importantly, the high costs of building Olympic venues will be much easier to stomach if those venues bring in tourism dollars every four years rather than just once in a lifetime. Secondly, adopting permanent locations in ideal climates will prevent the IOC from being pressured into awarding the Games to a city with marginal conditions for the sake of mixing up the host country or region. Finally, adopting permanent locations in non-geopolitically important countries will curb the likelihood of future boycotts, as otherwise the US and China would continue to host the Olympics on a fairly frequent basis and cause geopolitical controversy.
With these factors in mind, where should the Games be held? Starting with the Winter Olympics, there are a few potential candidate locations. From a geopolitical standpoint, the optimal location would be either in Switzerland or Austria, given these nations’ firm commitment to diplomatic neutrality. However, both of these locations have long-term climate risks. For instance, the village of Axamer Lizum, the site of ski events for past Olympics held in Austria, has an average February high temperature of over 40° F. Meanwhile, St. Moritz, the site of past Swiss-hosted Olympics, has an average February high temperature around 32° F, which means that the relevant figure will likely veer above freezing in the near future. Consequently, neither of these countries are excellent choices for hosting the Olympics long term. This being said, the presence of glaciers in ski towns like Saas Fee, Switzerland and Sölden, Austria, the latter of which hosts the first race of the Ski World Cup every year, means that neither of these countries are completely unsuitable choices.
Similarly, Sweden is also a neutral country that has mountains and snow. Additionally, unlike Switzerland and Austria, Sweden has ski mountains that should be sufficiently cold in the future. The ski town of Åre, which would have hosted ski events in the 2026 Olympics had Sweden’s bid succeeded, has an average high February temperature of around 24° F. Thus, Sweden is likely the best option for a permanent Winter Olympics host, though it is not perfect. Åre is isolated from the rest of Sweden, with Stockholm (who would’ve been Åre’s co-host in the 2026 Olympics) being a 7.5 hour drive away. Moreover, Sweden’s neutrality is less ironclad than that of Switzerland and Austria, with NATO membership being a strong possibility in the future.
Meanwhile, selecting a permanent Summer Olympics host is fairly difficult if one does not want to shift the games from their traditional mid-August calendar slot. If Sweden is selected as a permanent Winter Olympics host, the Summer Olympics should not be hosted in a Western country. However, the only non-Western countries in the Northern Hemisphere that have cities at low risk of unsafe 2085 temperatures are Russia, Mongolia, and Kyrgyzstan. Given Russia’s penchant for getting embroiled in doping scandals, it is an inappropriate contender for permanent Olympics host. Meanwhile, Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan lack the economic development necessary to host the Games every four years.
Consequently, going south of the equator is probably the best bet for finding a permanent summer host. Operating under the assumption that Australia and New Zealand are out of the picture by dint of being Western, Santiago, Chile is probably the best option for host city. Chile is relatively wealthy and economically stable compared to the other options, with a GDP per capita more than double that of Brazil and South Africa. Santiago also features a great climate, with high August temperatures averaging around 61° F. Finally, Chile has balanced relations with the US and China, so it should be a geopolitically uncontroversial host.
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