Primer: US presidential election

The 2024 election is finally here. On Tuesday, millions of voters will cast their ballots and decide who will serve as President and lead the country. Although the Senate, House, and countless state and local offices are also up for grabs, it’s the presidency that looks like the closest election in the modern era. Much has been written and discussed and analyzed about this election, but the Political Union insists that we have just one more debate. Monday’s resolution is: Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election?

The case for Trump might be just a small bit stronger. His favorability numbers are better than they were in his losing campaign, and he appears to have made inroads with members of the traditional Democratic base, particularly Black and Hispanic voters. The idea that it’s the economy, stupid, helps his argument – people trust Trump over Harris when it comes to managing the economy. He also is coming up against a candidate whose favorability numbers were in the toilet for most of the last few years, and the current president is deeply unpopular, suggesting that voters might want a change and see Trump as that change. Lastly, the polls indicate an absolute coin toss to win the election, but polls vastly underestimated Trump in the last two presidential elections, so he might actually be in the lead.

The case for Kamala has plenty of merits, too. She is popular among white women, the demographic that votes the most frequently and has traditionally leaned Republican. This means that she is less dependent on turnout to win. The Electoral College is also a potential benefit for her because of migration patterns toward the Sun Belt, which stack unnecessary Republican votes and leave more Democrats in the Rust Belt. Her campaign just needs to win Pennsylvania, where she avoided making a costly Puerto Rico mistake in the last week, and hold the blue belt in the Midwest to find victory, and the demographics support this. Lastly, the inaccuracy of polls on Trump in recent years caused a massive shift in modeling, and it’s very possible that there was an overcorrection that is making Trump appear more popular than reality. 

Unfortunately, it’s a total toss-up, and no one can truly know what will happen until the votes are counted. But make sure to join the debate this Monday at 7pm in Scott Hall 201!

"American Flag Photo" by Serfs UP ! Roger Sayles is licensed under CC BY-ND 2.0.

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